सर, यी डाँडा पाखामा विकास सम्भव होला त?

 'सर, यी डाँडा पाखाहरूमा विकास सम्भव होला त?' उहाँको यस प्रश्नमा छुट्टै गहनता थियो। यसले प्रत्येक ग्रामीण भेगका मानिसमा भएको विकासको तीव्र चाहानालाई उजागर गर्दथ्यो।

मैले देखेका विकसित डाँडापाखाले भरिएका भूपरिवेष्टित देशहरू अस्ट्रिया र स्विजरल्याण्डको विकास सम्झँदै भनेँ, 'होला नि दाइ, पालो आउँला नि। अस्ट्रिया र स्विजरल्याण्डको पनि यस्तै त हुन् नि! विकास भएकै छन्।'

मेरो उत्तर भुइँमा खस्न नपाउँदै मरो गाउँले दाइले कुरा थप्नु भयो, 'सर, आफूले त छोराछोरीलाई अस्ट्रेलिया, अमेरिका, युरोप त के काठमाडौँ, पोखरा पठाउन पनि सक्दिनँ होला।

छुट्टी भिन्नपछिका १० वर्ष खाडीमा बिताएर जोडन सकेको यही एउटा घरबारी र सडकले नछोएको त्यो १० मुरी धान दिने खेत हो,' भिरालो फाटका खेतका गरो देखाउँदै उहाँले कुरा थप्नु भयो, 'छोरो ३ वर्षको लाग्यो, यो जवान हुँदा म जस्तै जीविका उपार्जनका लागि खाडी जान नपरोस्। मेरो रहर मेरो सन्तानले यिनै आफ्ना डाँडा पाखामा, आफ्नै माटोमा गौरवका साथ बाँच्न सकोस् भन्ने हो।'

नेताहरू खै कुन-कुन जाती देश बनाउँछु भन्थे त! खै त के भयो विकास देशमा, गाउँमा? स्कुलको गुणस्तर उस्तै छ, बाटा घाटा उस्तै छन्, मानिसहरू श्रम गर्न दिनहुँ विदेश जानै परिरहेको छ। डाँडापाखा चिथोर्दै पहाडका टुप्पामा डोजर त पुर्‍याए तर फेरि त्यही काम गर्न अर्को वर्ष पनि गर्नु पर्‍यो भने के अर्थ भयो? राजनीतिक प्रणाली परिवर्तन भनेको आफ्ना आसेपासे पोस्ने कुरा मात्र त रहेछ नि, सर।'

म अवाक् भएँ। मैले उहाँसँग प्रतिवाद गर्ने हिम्मत गरिन। उहाँको भनाइको मर्म म बुझ्दथेँ किनकि स्थानीय स्तरमा क्षमता/ संसाधन र मानिसका अपेक्षाहरूबिच ठुलो खाडल छ। उहाँले भने जस्तो राजनीतिक, नीतिगत, संवैधानिक वा वस्तुगत विकास चाहिँ नभएको चाहिँ अवश्य होइन, तर जुन गतिका साथ हुनुपर्ने हो त्यो गतिका साथ भएन।

१० वर्षमा पाँच गुणाको आर्थिक हैसियत, गाउँका सबै ग्रामीण सडक कालोपत्रे, घर-घरमा रोजगारी, धनी-गरिब बीचको खाडलको अन्त्य, तीव्र गतिमा आर्थिक संवृद्धि हुने जस्ता गुलाबी सपनाहरूले नेपाली जनतालाई आशा जगाएका हुन्। तर विडम्बना, राजनीतिक नेतृत्वले बाचा गरेका कायापलटका सपनाहरूलाई नेपाली जनताले खासै मूर्त रूपमा महशुस गर्न सकेनन्।

देश विकास गर्न सबैभन्दा पहिले त नेतृत्व तहमा रहेका नेताहरूमा स्पष्ट लक्ष्य र सो हासिल गर्ने यथार्थपरक कार्यदिशा हुनुपर्छ। तर अहिले, हामीकहाँ राजनीतिक वृत्तमा दिगो विकासको बारेमा यथार्थपरक विश्लेषण नै हुन सकेको छैन। अझ, देश विकासको महत्त्वाकांक्षालाई सामर्थ्यले पुष्टि गर्न सकेन।

हामी कुन गतिले विकास गर्न सक्छौँ, कति विकास गर्न सक्छौँ? हाम्रो क्षमता कति हो भन्ने कुरा जनतालाई स्पष्ट रूप यथार्थ परक रूपमा हाम्रो नेतृत्वले भन्न सक्यो त? अनि जब यी राजनीतिक वाचाहरू पूरा हुने लक्षण देखिँदैनन्, जनताले नेतृत्व प्रति कुण्ठा किन व्यक्त नगरुन्? 'देश बिगारेको यी नै नेताहरूले हो!' यसले हामीलाई बढेको कर, भत्केको सडक, फेल भएका विद्यार्थी, ढिलो भएका योजना मात्र देख्ने बनायो।

फेरि उहाँले थप्नु भयो 'सर, अनि विदेश फेरि कहिले जाने, काठमाडौँ किन नबसेको?' उहाँको प्रश्नको भाव गाउँका थुप्रै अरूको जस्तै गाउँमा मैले समय बरबाद पारिरहेको छु भन्ने थियो। तर मलाई त जरो बुझ्नु थियो। मेरो परिचय दिने जरो अनि उहाँले चाहेको विकासको जरो।

यी जराहरू बुझ्ने रहर चार वर्ष अघि नै सुरु भएको थियो। त्यो यस्तो समय थियो जहाँ म जीवन, जगत् र विकासको बारेमा जिज्ञासा राख्दथेँ। इन्जिनियरिङ पढ्न अमेरिका गएको म मेरो देश र अमेरिकाको विकासको अन्तरले यति प्रभावित बनायो कि, मलाई विकास पद्दति बुझ्न मन लाग्यो र लम्किरहेको गोरेटो मोडेर राजनीति शास्त्र र अर्थतन्त्र केन्द्रित 'लिबरल आर्ट्स' संकाय रोजेँ।

यो निर्णयको प्रक्रियामा दुई कुराले मुख्य भूमिका खेले। मेरो पहिलो बुझाई यो रह्यो कि खुसी जीवनको सार हो र हाम्रो खुसी हामीले ख्याल गर्ने व्यक्तिहरूको खुसी/सुखको माध्यमबाट आउँछ। मैले गरेको दोस्रो अनुभूति यो हो कि हाम्रो जीवन एक सन्देश हो, यात्रा हो तर गन्तव्य होइन। मैले मनन गरेँ कि २००-किमी प्रति घण्टा I-२० लेनमा मर्सिडीज चलाउँदा मलाई खुसी हुँदैन, जब मेरा नातेदारहरूले एक जोडी चप्पल किन्न संघर्ष गर्नुपर्छ।

राम्रो जिपिए प्राप्त गरेर वा स्थिर आम्दानी मात्र खुसीको स्थायी स्रोत हुँदैन, जब समान शैक्षिक योग्यता भएका विद्यार्थीहरूले मध्य पूर्वी देशहरूमा घोटिनु पर्दछ। पढाई सकिएपछि पनि म विकासको जरो बुझ्न सरक्कै गाउँमा बसेँ। दुई विद्यालयमा स्वयंसेवक शिक्षक भएर दिनको ६ घण्टी पढाएँ। यस अनुभवले मलाई ग्रामीण क्षेत्रको राजनीति, सामाजिक-अर्थव्यवस्था, शिक्षा, स्थानीय शासन र उनीहरूको आपसी सम्बन्ध बुझ्न मद्दत पुर्‍यायो।

मेरो कोरा किताबी ज्ञानको एक थरी 'स्कुल अफ थट्सले' भन्थ्यो- विकासका लागि स्रोत, समावेशिता, समान हक र अधिकार, प्रतिस्पर्धा, राजनैतिक स्थिरता र शिक्षित जनशक्ति आवश्यक हुन्छ। तर मैले गाउँमा अझै पनि महिलामाथिको दमन देखेँ, दलितमाथिको विभेद देखेँ, शिक्षा प्रतिको वितृष्णा देखेँ, अनि आसेपासे तन्त्र देखेँ।

हाम्रो व्यवस्था फेरिए पनि मूल कुरा विकासका जरो स्थापित गर्ने सोच, व्यवहार र पद्द्तीहरुमा परिवर्तन ल्याउन एकदमै जरुरी रहेछ। नेपालमा अवसर धेरै कम, प्रतिस्पर्धा धेरै छ। राम्रो अवसर को खोजीमा गाउँबाट सहर पस्नु पर्ने, अनि सहरबाट विदेशिनु पर्ने बाध्यता छन्। आसेपासे तन्त्र डरलाग्दो तरिकाले गाडिएको छ।

सानो विकास योजनाको सदस्यको नियुक्तिदेखि ठुला ठेक्कापट्टा पनि राजनीतिक पहुँचको आधारमा हुने गर्छन्। पहुँच हुनेलाई सजिलो, नहुनेलाई धेरै गाह्रो। अनि पलायन हुन खोज्यो भनेर गुनासो गर्ने ठाउँ नै पनि कहाँ रह्यो र?

केही हप्ता अगाडि उही दाइले फेसबुकमा एउटा मेसेज पठाउनु भो। 'सर, देशमा त के हुने भयो खै? देश नै बेच्न खोजे। ऋण मात्र बढ्यो भन्छन्। पढे लेखेका सबै बाहिर, यी नेताहरूको त कामै भएन।'

तर उही विकास चाहने दाइले फेरि किन कुरा बुझ्न सक्नु भएन त। किनभने हामी विरोधाभासमा बाँचिराखेका छौँ। हामी धनी हुने चाहना राख्छौँ, तर ऋण चाहन्नौँ। हामी विकसित हुन चाहन्छौँ तर सहयोग लिन चाहँदैनौ। हामी दक्ष जनशक्ति नेपाल फर्किउन पनि भन्छौँ, तर मन को सानो कुनामा यहाँ धेरै नबसुन् भन्ने पनि चाहन्छौँ। हामी दोष नेतालाई थुपार्छौ अनि आफूलाई दूधले नुहाएको सम्झन्छौँ। हामी लक्ष्य राख्छौँ तर लिनुपर्ने बाटो नाप्न विलम्ब गर्छौँ। मोही माग्छौँ, ढुङ्ग्रो लुकाउँछौँ।

मेरो कोरा ज्ञानले यो पनि भन्छ- अब विश्व अर्थतन्त्रको गुरुत्व एसियातर्फ ढल्कँदै छ। छिमेकी भारत र चीनको विश्व अर्थतन्त्र र राजनीतिमा बढ्दो हैसियतसँगै स्थिर, अखण्ड र समावेशी नेपाल केही दशकमा पश्चिमी युरोपका समृद्ध देशहरूका बीचमा रहेका भूपरिवेष्टित देशहरू जसरी नै सेवा प्रदायक अर्थतन्त्रको आडमा विकसित देश बन्न सक्छ।

त्यसैले कम्तीमा म आशावादी छु। मेरा लागि, मेरा गाउँका दाइका सन्ततिहरूका लागि, आज को भोलि होइन लामो दौरानमा। तर, यसका लागि हामी पनि सुध्रनु नि पर्छ, आफ्नो माटोको विकासका लागि।

(यो लेख सेतोपाटीमा August 23, 2020 मा प्रकाशित भएको थियो।) 

Revisiting Local Governance

With the formulation of the new Constitution of Nepal in 2015 and the successful election of the local governments in 2017, the people had expectations that the service delivery would be at their doorsteps, colloquially said in political discourse as "Ghar-Ghar ma Singha Durbar." The newly elected representatives filled about 16-years of vacuum at the local level and expected to manage the socio-economic and governance-related expectations of the locals. The reachability of the local governance along with the inclusive nature of the local government, with the constitutional mandate for the representation of women and marginalized groups, on paper, had the promises of meeting the objectives of better service delivery, inclusive development through broader participation, political accountability, and ownership of the government. However, more than three years into the federal structure, these promises merit an empirical evaluation. Moreover, the performance of the local governments begs a thorough reflection on the question of how far these promises have been realized in a seemingly new political context and how the local governments can revisit themselves to fulfill the local expectations, especially during the time of global crisis like COVID-19 and beyond.

 

The Problems

There is a huge gap between the capacity and resources at the local level and the expectations of the people. This gap is, in part, driven by the rosy ungrounded promises of overnight economic prosperity after a system would be enacted, after a party held the majority or after a politician came to power. The disappointment is manifesting in the form of public's disapproval of the workings of the local government and the federalization in general. The difference between what could realistically be achieved and what was promised is just one part.  Even for the realistic part, there is this lack of capacity on the part of the local representatives and the bureaucrats for effective public service and development planning.  The development planning seems to be marred by the traditional one-year centralized module without due consideration to the long term planning and the balance between social, economic, and infrastructural sectors.  Another particular problem is the lack of sustainable practice of physical development, with a large portion of budget being spent on infrastructural development particularly in the roads, only to be needing a budget for the same work the next year.

Photo Credit: ADB

 

For the lack of relevant data and prior practices, the local governments have not been able to use evidence-based practices—wide criticism of the local level’s distribution of relief during Covid-19 being one prime example. The arbitrary nature of relief distribution in the absence of reliable data on the economically vulnerable group left many into doubting whether the people who most needed the relief were the ones getting it. The perceived partiality in relief distribution caused people to protest even at the times of lockdown. Some people went as far as to assault the local representatives and to vandalize the local government offices, venting their frustrations over the poor quality of relief material and irregularities in procurement and distribution of the same. The incidents of this nature relating to relief distribution were widespread across the country with at least 72 latent or violent incidents during the lockdown recorded in NepalMonitor. This is just an example of haphazard program delivery at the local level.

This brings us to the third concern of transparency and accountability which has been raised in the local level governance processes, at the rate higher than ever. The result of the survey undertaken by the Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority(CIAA) in the January of 2020 suggests that corruption is thriving at the local level, with more than 50 percent of the respondents claiming that the corruption at the local level has either remained the same or has increased. Similarly, of the 20,000 complaints filed at the CIAA for the 2018/2019 fiscal year, 23 percent of those complaints were related to the local levels. On top of that, a report published in January 2019 showed that municipalities and rural municipalities were the second most corrupt entities after land revenue offices. These statistics show the sorry state of corruption at the local level.

The Opportunities

 

One way to contain corruption is to create a functioning check and balance mechanism through a  political competition for the service delivery but the political competition also has its pitfalls. There may be an almost two-thirds majority in the federal government, but the composition of the local government is rather politically diverse. The diversity has manifested in political competition for the development infrastructure, resource allocation, and political appointment at the local level. Often at some local level, the tension within the local representatives and between the local representatives and the bureaucrats has spilled into the shutdown of the office or caused impedance towards the general service delivery to the public for a long period of time. There is no excuse for the competition which hampers public service delivery mechanisms for a long period of time, but conflicts are inevitable in politics and in governance. Therefore, the healthy political competition is better than the collusion between the local level stakeholders which creates a deadweight loss of efficiency.

 

Secondly, a strong civic engagement, which can demand transparency uninvited, is necessary to act as a watchdog to contain corruption.  When the local levels do not readily deliver their promises, the watchdog should be able to demand social audits for accountability, transparency about financial reports and planning of the budget, and create a two-way dialogue between citizens and the local level officials. There is also an urgent need to increase the capacity of these citizens’ groups to monitor the roles and functions of the local governments, and take judicious actions when needed.

Now coming back to the problem of capacity at the local level, it seems imperative for the government to appoint human resources with the knowledge of development planning and to channel the appropriate resources towards such capacity building to spearhead the development planning at the local level. When this is done, the local level can better address the social development needs of the local people such as quality education, health, and social safety net. The bureaucrats with development planning orientation will be more able to adopt and advocate for a balanced development plan with evidence-based approaches.

 

At a time when the future of federalism is being called into question due to the economic burden of federalism and rampant corruption at the local level, the argument for the need of federalism will be strengthened if the role of local governments in crisis management as this pandemic proves to be pivotal. To that end, the local government, for the most part, has taken the commendable steps in disseminating awareness about the COVID-19, setting up quarantines, distributing relief to the economically vulnerable group, and working closely with the professional in the health sector in response to COVID-19. It would have been very difficult to deliver these services if the void in the local governance existed in this pandemic. The work for the local government, however, has only begun in response to COVID-19. With an active population now returning to the country or having to stay in the country at least until the pandemic settles, the local government has the responsibility to engage this active population in entrepreneurial activities or local development activities to stir up the economy.

 

Lastly, the success of the local governance depends on the symbiotic relationship between the service providers and the service seekers. Local governments cannot be successful until and unless elected representatives do not adequately respond to the needs, concerns, and grievances of people, especially those who are at the margins for a long time. However, local governments still have a long way to go for ensuring a pro-people and deliberative democracy with strong priority towards recognizing the voice of citizens and their meaningful empowerment. There is a slim hope that this COVID-19 crisis has taught a lesson to all the local government leaders to rethink their priorities and act accordingly in the post-pandemic context.

I co-authored this article with  Prakash Bhattarai. The article was originally published in myRepublica on August 16, 2020. 

Why NCP's Split is a bad idea for the factions and the country at large?

There were the hopes of political stability after the now-merged Nepal Communist Party(NCP) won the general election in 2017 with almost a two-thirds majority. However, the internal conflict of Nepal Communist Party(NCP) is at its peak and the signs are telling that the NCP might collapse in the weight of its own success. Should that happen, the split would mean that the NCP fails to rescue the country out of political instability and fails to stand up to the expectations of the left-leaning populace. On top of that, the split would also be a blow to some of the progressive agendas and the promise of "Happy Nepalese and Prosperous Nepal" championed by the communist-led leftist government.

 

Nepalese politics has witnessed the series of political upheavals after the restoration of multi-party democracy in 1990. After failing to manage the intra-party political disputes and to control the corruption and mal-governance, the prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala called for the mid-term election in 1994, three years in to the government. The politics of Nepal took a bumpy journey ever since and the current political development surrounding NCP interestingly shares the same crossroads Girija Prasad Koirala faced in 1994. 

Picture Credit: myRepublica

Nepal saw twenty-two different governments, majority of those lasting for less than a year, in a span of twenty-four years from 1994 to the 2018. The political instability coupled with the failure to deliver the public expectation made a way for a 10-year-long Maoist insurgency beginning in 1996 which took 16000 lives and a soft coup from the then King Gyanendra in 2005. It seemed all rosy after the Maoists joined the peace process in 2006 and after the people's mass revolution established the country as a federal democratic republic. However, it took two rounds of elections for constitution assembly to finally deliver the contentious constitution after much deliberation for 7 years. 

 

The NCP leadership should critically look at the critical juncture of 1994 which paved the way for decades of instability. The split of NCP, at this point, would risk the party of instigating another round of instability in the country through destabilization of the executive branch of the government in the central and provincial governments.   

 

NCP has an almost two-third majority in the parliament. On close inspection though, the voter base of the closest rival Nepali Congress and the larger party of the coalition, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) (CPN(UML)), is almost even. CPN(Maoist Center) and CPN(UML) ran on the banner of left alliance and brought forward a common candidate for the First Past the Poll(FPTP) seats. Even though the parties brought the common candidates for FPTP seats, they vouched for proportionate seats separately. The total votes garnered by the then CPN (UML) in the proportionate system is only 0. 47 percent more than that of the closest rival Nepali Congress, while the same of the then CPN Maoist (Center) is about 19 percent less than that of the Nepali Congress. The left alliance, which later merged to become NCP, won 70 percent of the First Past the Poll(FPTP) seats because their candidates amassed all the left-leaning votes for the first time, in a country with a majority leftist leaning. 

Picture Credit: Nepali Times

 

As such, irrespective of the faction the NCP might be split, there is a high possibility that split parties will be pushed to second, third, or fourth place in the upcoming election. Consequently, this communist government will be the first and the last time the communist party enjoys the unrivaled share of the power in all levels of government. The split of NCP would also mean that the communists lose their unrivaled hold in the six provinces in which they hold the power. 

 

The next general election is at least two and a half years away. The split, now, would mean that the next government will be a coalition government as no single party would have the majority in the parliament to form the government. There used to a joke about that the Nepalese governments that these came with an expiration date of nine months. Now that article 100 of the Nepalese Constitution prohibits the vote of no-confidence for two years after a government is formed, we may see a two-year-tenured government as a new normal. 

 

The leaders of the heavy-weights filled NCP started political fidgeting to gain the power or to bargain for the power as soon as the Oli-led government marked its second year on April 15 this year. This observation now begs the question if the party-merger was an ideological unity or was staged just for political leverage. As mentioned above, the NCP leaders must heed the patterns of political history post-1990 and make decisions keeping the interest of the country at its crux.

 

Nepalese people want the government to address the day to day expectations of the people such as proper response to COVID-19, more jobs, higher wages, better roads, transparency, accountability, rule of law, good governance, and affordable cost of living. We are convinced that institutional or government change, as we have seen in last twenty-five years, do not help much to meet those expectations. NCP must solve its internal matters democratically, work diligently to meet the day-to-day expectations, and make an effort not to disappoint the Nepalese populace again.  

 

The article was originally published in The Diplomat on August 5, 2020. 

 

 

 

Data for Public Policy

The Nobel Prize in Economics in 2019 was awarded to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer for their experimental approach of alleviating poverty. The key to their experimental approach was randomized trials to test the effectiveness of social programs and interventions. Such evidence driven approach, if executed with sound research ethics, overcomes individual biases, haphazard decision making, and counterproductive political agenda. Public policy guided by evidence has its utility in understanding social problems, designing the interventions that can be more targeted, nimble, and experimental, and making a track of the progress of such interventions. On top of that, the evidence-based approach also brings about transparency and accountability in the policy decision of the government.

Nepal's problems

The promise of the evidence-based public policy runs into some critical problems in Nepal. The prerequisite for such an approach is the data that is open, structured, timely, trustworthy, comprehensive, and disaggregated. However, there is the problem of a huge data gap in Nepal. Nepal Development Update 2019 from the World Bank states that there is a lack of about 70 percent of the province level indicators of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This lack of data that is reliable and comprehensive impedes the full-fledged shift towards the evidence-based public policy. The problem is not typical to Nepal.

According to a recent UN Report on Sustainable Development Goals 2020, less than half of the 194 countries lack the internationally comparable data for 4 out of the 17 goals. The same report further spells out that Official Development Assistance (ODA) internationally for data and statistics in 2017 was only half of the needed amount, which prolongs the setup of data infrastructure and analytics for evidence-based policymaking in developing countries like Nepal.

Secondly, there is a lack of coordination and collaboration within the data collecting units in the same domain for the data to be reliable and trustworthy. For example, there are a few non-governmental organizations (NGOs) such as WOREC, INSEC, and Nepal Monitor which currently collect data on Gender-Based Violence (GBV). However, these organizations have different coverage and different methodology of data collection. Therefore, their data and findings vary accordingly. In any case, their data and the findings seem to be different from the official data collected by the formal source of complaint—Nepal Police.

For example, WOREC reported an increase in the GBV incident during the lockdown while the data from Nepal Police shows that the GBV decreased significantly after the lockdown was imposed. Contradictory findings like these perplex the general public and policymakers alike and defeat the very purpose of objective evidence in the public policy domain.

Thirdly, there is a lack of appreciation of evidence in the public policy discourse for a long time. For a country rising out of political revolutions, public policy was purely political aiming to fulfill the interest of certain political parties without rational consideration of such policies. In recent times, we do see a gradual awareness as well as mildness about such an approach among Nepali policymakers and politicians, but there is still room for improvements in evidence-driven policymaking culture and practices in Nepal. There is a serious need for laying a strong foundation of evidence-based policymaking at the provincial and local government level.

Approaches to follow

A lot remains to be done to reap the benefit of evidence-based policymaking in Nepal. As data is crucial, the data thus collected need also to be open, timely, trustworthy, and comprehensive. At present, the periodic census, administrative data from various government agencies, data collected through the Vital Registration System (VRS), data produced through Nepal Rastra Bank, the Nepal Living Standard Survey, Demographic and Health Survey and the data produced through the UN, World Bank, ADB, and IMF are the cardinal source of public data in Nepal. When the government itself is not in a position to produce data and needed analysis, NGOs, think tanks, and university based research institutions can play a supplemental role in producing data.

The first approach towards such a goal is the buildup of trust between the government and these agencies who produce data and evidence on the same domain. Since the production of data and results that are comprehensible, trustworthy and reproducible to the policymakers is vital, the public policy units of the government need also to be consulted during the program design, so that the data collected from other agencies meet the government guidelines and standards. If data collection meets certain standards, the government should vouch for the authenticity and validity of the data for it to be used by the researchers and policymakers within and outside the government.

The notions that the government should focus on evidence-based public policy and that there needs to be a collaboration among different agencies, policymakers, and data-driven projects are not new. Something that is new is the opportunity created by the technology to harvest data effectively, create a synergy from different data sets, and make it easier for the public to access the data. Digital technology enables data harvesters to collect the data and register them directly into the system without the need to digitize the data.

Furthermore, the same data can be made available in web-platforms in real-time for the users to access. For example, web-scraping allows users to scrape the semi-structured data in the public domain for it to be used in a structured form. Similarly, statistical software makes it easier to collate and quality-control the data from different sources. As such, organizations and government units working on the same domain should make the best use of the available technology to produce high-quality data.

Since the national census will take place next year, it brings forth an opportunity to bridge the data gap through a comprehensive questionnaire. For this, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) should do an early start to identify the data needs of the government and other agencies through wider consultations. Similarly, the newly formed federal structure should create a room for the local and provincial governments to build a mechanism to effectively and regularly collect the data from the local levels. Such harvesting of the data should be complemented with the setup of an integrated data management system within three tiers of government. The VRS should be practiced as an important mechanism for collecting some important data, particularly the migration data, which play an influential role in development planning processes.

Data, on its own, is useless. We need strong analytics tools and statisticians to make sense of the data. Data makes sense when it tells a story: the progress against set goals, the causation between different indicators, or the trends over time among many other indicators. Therefore, there needs to be a higher emphasis on the latest data analytics tools and technology infrastructure for the monitoring, evaluation, and analytics of the data in policy institutes of Nepal. Such capabilities must be complemented by routine supervision, capacity building, constant evaluation, and feedback loop mechanism.

The use of data is as much a concern as its analytics or availability in the public domain. The culture of data-driven evidence should simultaneously emerge from the academic, policy, and political realm. In this regard, the government, donors, and even the private sector of Nepal should invest on producing high quality data that is beneficial to all. Universities should proactively be engaged in data-driven research and pave a way to establish a culture of data-driven research and analysis among their students as well as faculties.

Government ministries and associated departments should have an active policy unit that conducts regular research to address their data gaps. Driving the public policy, however, remains at the behest of political actors. At times when the political leadership is criticized for its speculative and evidence-less opinions, the political leadership, most of all, must embrace the importance of evidence, be it a trivial matter or macro policies, for others to follow. 

The article was originally published in myRepublica on July 29, 2020. I co-authored the article with Dr. Prakash Bhattarai from the Center of Social Change. 

Monitoring Incidents Surrounding Covid-19

The lockdown introduced by the Government from March 24 throughout the country to prevent the spread of COVID-19 brought with it several challenges including increasing discord between citizens and police enforcing the lockdown, stranded migrant workers, and often vigilantism from locals in different places. While the people seemed to comply with the lockdown restrictions for the first few days, people got increasingly frustrated as they ran out of the patience and resources. This led to the large exodus of the migrant workers from the capital city—some completed the entire journey by walk while the others hopped into the trucks mid-way. Some local governments and the leaders entered the scene late to help the students, migrant workers, and others reach their local levels but only at the central government’s back. Similarly, the immigrants stranded at India’s border had to wait for weeks before the government finally let them in. The pleas of many stranded Nepalese abroad remain unaddressed as they watch the other foreign government pick up their citizens into their respective countries. The lack of promptness to rescue the stranded people left many Nepalese citizens who need urgent support in limbo.

Many internal migrants, now, have returned to their villages after losing their jobs in the capital and other cities. With no social security in place, the only avenue for the next meal is the relief package from the local government for most of the returnee and the local daily wage earners. However, the arbitrary nature of relief distribution in the absence of reliable data on the economically vulnerable group has left many into doubting whether the people who most need the relief are the ones getting it. The perceived partiality in relief distribution caused people to protest even at the times of lockdown. Some people have gone as far as to assault the local representatives and to vandalize the office of the local level, venting their frustrations over the poor quality of relief material and irregularities in procurement and distribution of the same. The incidents of this nature relating to relief distribution were widespread across the country. NepalMonitor has recorded 63 incidents of latent protests or violence relating to the relief distribution during the lockdown until May 31. This problem stems from the lack of reliable data on the number of poor and vulnerable people. In light of these incidents, it seems necessary for the local level and non-governmental organizations to focus on data-driven projects to drive evidence-based response in the future.

Besides relief-related violence and contestations, there have been several other violent incidents while imposing the lockdown or maintaining quarantine. Police have assaulted the citizens for breaking the lockdown—some cases being merciless one-sided assaults, while others turning into a clash.  It is not only the police force that has been the first aggressor, but the citizens in many cases have initiated the attack against the police or armed police personnel. For example, the team of ward chairperson of Gujara Municipality-4, Rautahat, on May 29, resorted to attacking and pelting stones at the police team that came to resolve the dispute of quarantine management.  From Jhapa to Kailai, the Armed Police Force (APF) guarding the southern border with India has been the target of agitated people across the border. The narrative that the law-enforcing agents are only to blame for the discord has to change. On top of that,  we need to pay respect, where it is due, to the personnel working in the frontline against covid-19, be that a policeman or a health professional.

In some places, the locals have created a hurdle in setting up the quarantine, fearing the spread of the virus in their locality. For instance, on May 29, some teachers and the locals of Jajarkot  tore down the building of  Shree Krishna Primary School at Bheri Municipality-6, Jajarkot showing their dissatisfaction over the decision to turn the nearby school into a quarantine venue to house those returning from India. In other cases, there have been incidents of discrimination against the quarantine attendees. The ward chairperson of Bhanu Municipality-2, Tanahu expelled the man, who came from Kathmandu, at the midnight of May 20, claiming that he might be infected with the coronavirus. There also has been the incident of discrimination against the Dalits in the quarantine, an example being in Isma, Gulmi.

These are just the representative examples of hurdles of setting up quarantine, enforcing lockdown, and properly managing quarantines. Now that the government prepares to bring thousands of Nepalese abroad into the country, the number of people in isolation and quarantine is likely going to increase. As such, the government and the local levels need prudent planning and swift and impartial execution. Most of all, the situation warrants logical cooperation from all of us in this fight against the global pandemic.

Statistics are based on the NepalMonitor.org, which is the flagship violence monitoring project of COCAP which has a comprehensive record of

violent incidents, political incidents, and non-violent contestations since 2015. The organization is also currently monitoring the violent and latent

incidents surrounding lockdown implementation, quarantine implementation, government relief distribution, and the incidents of discrimination

and prejudices during Covid-19 pandemic.

Opinions expressed are that of the author and not that of the organization.

Foreign Aid: Alternatives( Part II)

This second part of the article proposes, rather an idealistic alternative to opening up the national borders, which require the involvement of wealthier countries, to assuage the suffering of the less fortunate people. The advanced technology in the wealthy country yields higher wage for migrants while having no negative impact on the unemployment rate of the wealthier country in the long run. These gains would not only help the immigrating individuals and the home countries but also their families and friends in their home country since much of the wealth gained by those migrants is sent back to their home country in the form of remittance, which is in larger amounts and much more effective than foreign aid. It will be in the scope of the article to shed light on the limitations of my alternative as well. 

Image Source: The Kathmandu Post

Michael Clemens estimates the gains from removing global migration barriers could be in the range of "50 to 150 percent of world GDP" (Coyne, 2013, pp. 190-191). These gains would not only help the migrating individuals and the receiving countries but also the poor families and friends left behind. Much of the wealth gained by those who migrate is sent back to their home country in the form of remittance, which is much more effective than aid.  Remittance has a large share of GDP in developing countries and has surpassed the share of foreign aid and foreign direct investment in most of the developing countries. Remittances have been found to have a number of positive effects on the developing economies. It has served as insurance policies against risks associated with new production activities and reduced income inequality, has helped low-income households to smoothen their consumption by reducing their vulnerability to adverse shocks, has increased the propensity to save, has reduced poverty, and has helped build schools and clinics (Cooray, 2012, p. 3). Remittances have also been found to promote economic growth, promote financial sector development and reduce output volatility.  Different other studies support the argument that remittances promote economic growth. Several studies also show that growth rates are higher in countries with a well-developed financial sector, a high human capital stock, and well-developed infrastructure. Studies further support the argument that remittances have contributed to financing education and promoting financial sector development. Therefore, high-remittance receiving countries with comparatively better developed physical and human capital stocks, and financial systems should be able to successfully channel remittance flows towards economic growth (Ibid, p.4). Unlike Foreign Aid, remittance reaches the families and the families will invest it in investment as well as consumption sector.

Image Source: The Kathmandu Post

            Although much more modest in potential gains, Coyne also supports trade facilitation and elimination of all trade barriers such as tariffs and quotas. The Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII) has estimated that trade liberalization in conjunction with trade facilitation could have worldwide gains of more than $550 billion, or about .8% of world GDP (European Commission, 2006). These estimated gains from open immigration, trade facilitation, and free trade are extremely attractive because they hold great potential for both the poorest and the richest of the world.

Foriegn Aid: Why did Foreign Aid Fail? (Part I)

Most people concede that no one should be worse off because of no fault of their own. The current global political economy is such that there is a large economic divide between a representative person in North America and the same in Sub-Saharan Africa in so much that the latter may be conditioned to depravity and suffering.  In parallel to the argument for the welfare state within the state, many emphasize the moral obligation of the rich countries to help the poorer countries in the form of foreign aid. In the first part of the article, I will detail the history and the rationale for foreign aid. In the latter part of the article, I will also focus on examining the validity of the arguments in favor of foreign aid. The following discussion will show that foreign aid undermines democratic values and local institutions, consolidates roots of corruption, slows the economic growth of the country and prevents people from searching their own solutions while creating a self-perpetuating lobby of aid agencies.  

History of Foreign Aid

The idea of foreign aid started after the end of the Second World War to influence the countries receiving aid. Foreign aid was then used as a tool of diplomacy in the Cold War; however, the purpose of foreign aid has also evolved to developmental, humanitarian relief or commercial motivation in recent times. It was agreed by members of the Development Aid Committee (DAC) in 1970 that they would contribute 0.7 percent of their GNI towards foreign aid; however, the intended target is not fulfilled by all the countries of the committee (Deaton, 2013, pp. 268-307) The interest of the donor country into the aid receipt country is an important attribute in analyzing the different dimensions of foreign aid which include recipient countries, the purpose of the aid (intentions) and amount of foreign aid.

Preface for Aid:

The primary reason for economic discrepancy across the globe is linked with lack of proper technological advancement and industrialization, political instability, divided economies and exploitation of natural resources by colonial power in what we call as developing countries. While present day rich countries continue on economic prosperity through industrialization, the poor countries are forced to depend largely on the influx of capital from other sources to run their national economy (Preece, 2009). The influx of capital comes in the form of foreign aid for most of the developing countries of which many are concentrated in the south. Jeffrey Sachs, an adviser to the United Nations, claims that the reason some countries are poor is because of their characteristics which make it harder for them to be as productive as other countries. He believes that “an initial large investment” can help them to fight endemic problems and start a virtuous cycle of economic growth (Banjaree & Esther , 2011, p. 3). He furthermore claims that poverty will be eliminated if rich countries of the world commit 195 billion dollars every year between 2005 and 2025 (Sachs, 2005).

Image Source: Abusidiqu

Why did Aid go wrong?    Intentions and Incentives

However, empirical evidence has not shown positive results as Jeffery Sachs would have anticipated, and other experts rightfully assert that foreign aid does more bad than good. In books such as The Elusive quest for Growth, The White Man’s Burden and Dead Aid, scholars such as William Easterly and Dambisa Moyo argued “that foreign aid prevents people from searching for their own solutions while corrupting and undermining local institutions and creating a self-perpetuating lobby of aid agencies” (Banjaree & Esther , 2011, pp. 3-4). Economist William Easterly also acknowledged the failure of more than 2.3 trillion of development assistance over five decades to make any significant developmental progress (Reinert, 2009, p. 206). According to him, foreign aid has been inefficient because all the players of economic growth did not have the right intentions and incentives (Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth, 2001, p. 21), and because economic growth can happen only when donors face incentives that nudges them to give aid to countries where it will be efficient, but not only to justify the aid for next year (Ibid, pp. 289-291).

Image Source: The Standard 

Similarly, Erik S. Reinert in his book How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor claims that “aid is a means of control, not of growth, keeping the third world dependent” (Reinert, 2009, pp. 174-200)  He also goes on to say that the World Bank and IMF do not pay attentions to the details and ignore the crux of the problem. These organizations generalize the case and make recommendations based on those generalizations without a through case studies on those countries as was the case with Mongolia in 1990 (Reinert, 2009, pp. 175-179). Moreover, evaluation of international non-governmental organizations are either exaggerated in terms of their success or underreported in terms of their failures as they run through fund-raising business (Deaton, 2013, p. 290).

The poor people do not have the means- money or political power- to attract attention such that their demands are met, while the rich have every means to address their needs (Easterly, The White Man's Burden, 2006, p. 167), and this fact speaks the truth relating to foreign aid as well.  It is often the case of he who pays the piper calls the tune in case of foreign aid which keeps the locals away from the policy making sector and makes investment and policies vulnerable to ineffectiveness. A good hard look reveals a shocking story that the World Bank, the IMF and other foreign donors are exploiting the poor countries under the guise of eliminating poverty. (Mwenda, 2007)in his TED talk says “Rather than sitting with Ugandan entrepreneurs, Ghanaian businessmen, South African enterprising leaders, our governments [Ugandan] find it more productive to talk to the IMF and the World Bank.”

Other times, the foreign donors use their aid to press for political and economic concessions in façade of helping the poor. In 1965-66, when drought threatened millions of peasants, the USA used food as a weapon to acquiesce India to be flexible for its fertilizer markets to American export and to soften its hostile stand against American involvement in the issue (Sharma, 2002). Similarly, the United States made a condition that Bangladesh ends its jute exports to Cuba to receive food aid, in September of 1974. Following severe flooding which had disrupted normal rice production cycle in the northern region of the country, the Bangladeshi government could not find other alternatives but to acquiesce United States’ proposition to save country’s face in such time (Bird, 1977).

 Corruption, Diversion of fund and Reliance on Aid

One of the most pressing problems in foreign aid is the diversion of a fund from the intended recipients by corrupt institutions.  Aid can consolidate roots of corruption for it “establishes dependency, destroys self-reliance and enervates government and society” (Hazlewood, 1976, pp. 254-255). Aid can also undermine the democratic values, civil participation and can slow the economic growth of a country (Deaton, 2013, p. 294). The following instances only verify such claim.

Image Source: Coffee House-The Spectator

The leaders of countries receiving foreign aid are more concerned about their bank accounts than the concern of reducing poverty which is in their hand. In a case of Uganda, local officials tapped 87% of the money from public education grants over a four-year period (Reinikka, pp. 679-705).Similarly, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has estimated themselves that 80% of their funds go directly to American firms (Jamieson, 2005, p. 159), while another research suggests that seventy percent of the aid from the United States never reached the recipient country in cash (Deaton, 2013, p. 278). Even exacerbate, of all the world's development aid, "only 19% . . . goes to the 43 least developed countries" (Jamieson, 2005). Only ten to twenty percent of aid ever reaches its target, quotes the book Why Nations Fails by giving an example of Afghanistan. When Afghanistan was looking to rebuild under a democratic regime of Hamid Karzai, foreign aid was seen as a tool for rebuilding the country. Billions of dollars were outpoured in the name of Afghanistan, but only twenty percent of the aid reached to Afghanistan with remaining eighty percent being dissipated among various political parties and the UN offices (Ibid). 

Similarly, poor countries that have received more aid than other countries per capita do not have the economic development greater than that of countries receiving little foreign aid. For example, China and India have made a better economic progress than Sub-Saharan African countries which received a higher amount of aid per capita than those countries (Deaton, 2013, pp. 281-282). In a few countries ,including that in Sub-Saharan Africa, foreign aid is so significant that it comes in the way of long-term prosperity and of the effectiveness of local institutions (Ibid, p. 313)in so much that decrease in economic growth and increase in foreign aid had a positive co-relation(Ibid, p. 285).

Mixture of Purpose

On the other hand, Carol Lancaster (2007) in his book Foreign Aid claims that mixture of purposes especially that of USA, Japan or France has led to the ineffectiveness of foreign aid. US aid has the mixture of diplomatic and developmental purposes, and for these motives, it was at times held accountable for failures in programs that were driven by diplomatic purposes (Ibid, p. 106).  Similarly, Carrol mentions that Japanese aid lacked a major developmental focus because it was motivated by commercial and diplomatic purposes and that French aid was primarily driven by the interest of maintaining a sphere of predominant influence, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (Lancaster, 2007, pp. 215-218).

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