Sunday, November 17, 2013

Syrian Issue- A political Conundrum

Whether USA should attack Syria or not is the most debated topic as of 11th of August, 2013 as far as international politics is concerned. This topic has gathered varying opinions on what USA’s move should be, typically after Obama’s “red line” has now been crossed. This is my attempt to explore, analyze, critique and improve two contradicting opinions, one from Radwan Ziadeh, spokesman for the Syrian National Council,   and other from Stephen M. Walt, professor of international affairs at Harvard University. Walt makes valid arguments against intervention, but fails to address possible ways the Syrian Crisis can be resolved. He is more concerned about the interests of the US than of a conflict that has clearly gone out of control. Ziadeh represents that side of the world, which still look up on the western world to help check the atrocities against civilians around the world. He however, fails to explain how western intervention will lead to or even help reach political stability in Syria.

Walt makes strong arguments against the intervention in Syria. He holds strong proclivity against any kind of attack against Syria on USA’s part. Walt addresses the fact that deadlier weapons than those used by Assad regime have been already used, so violation of international law against chemical weapons should not be the triggering factor for a reaction. He reminds us of how USA has violated the international laws to get what Washington D.C. wanted in the past; thus, it would be inappropriate to talk about international law at this point.  He further believes that half-hearted attack as proposed by Obama Administration contributes nothing towards depriving Assad of his power, and even if this attack helps rebel group backed by Jihadists to topple the ruling government, it would be unfortunate for Syria and western countries to have the extremist Jihadists as the ruling power of Syria. In his view, the USA need not intervene at this point regardless of use of chemical weapon when people were mercilessly killed from the beginning of the conflict. In Walt’s view, Obama’s red line is the only reason for the USA to attack or at least punish Syria for using chemical weapons. This drawing of a line was foolish in his opinion due to the presence of deadlier weapons already, and responding to a foolish decision with another foolish move would not be what the USA would want to do. Any reluctant action taken to hold firm on the earlier stance might push USA into deeper trouble, Walt further argues.
Walt’s argument on why USA should not attack Syria following recent chemical attack is agreeable from the American point of view. It is true that the USA cannot afford to go to another war, particularly in Syria, because the consequences are unknown, yet most likely miserable. He defends the counter argument too by convincingly putting forward the domestic concerns of the USA. His argument on the last paragraph about intervention being a foolish act to save Obama’s face sounds convincing, especially when looking back at the aftermaths of American intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan. 
On the other hand, Radwan Ziadeh argues that the USA and international society have decisive power to control the rebel in Syria as the only legitimate organ to respond to these attacks is paralyzed by Veto Power of China and Russia in United Nations Security Council. It seems reasonable, in his View, for powerful western nations to take action against impunity by Assad’s regime.  He elaborates that preceding events which were not kept on track by the NATO and other nations opened the door for the attacks of higher magnitude and destruction by Assad’s Regime. He believes that targeted air strikes and enforcement of non-flight zone can end impunity and bring back stable Syria.  However, he does not defend counter- arguments about retaliation from Syria and its allies. Even though Ziadeh mentions that international intervention can thwart away the evils of Syria, he fails to address looming questions of world war, as well as stability and leadership in Syria after intervention.
It is interesting that a Syrian writer himself is expecting intervention from the western world because Syria indeed has lost all hopes. However, Zaideh doesn’t sound convincing in his proposed solution of targeted air strikes and enforcement of a non-flight zone, especially after the international community has already decided that intervention is not going to solve the problem and that Syria is rather on its own. While the argument is whether western intervention is essential for checking chemical weapon use, Zaideh is hoping too much by pointing that the international community might be able to solve this crisis.
After 9/11 attack, USA government is keeping tight scrutiny in Middle East countries with an influence of either Al-Qaeda or Taliban. It has also been cautious over the issue of nuclear weapons, linked especially with North Korea and Iran. Syria seems to attract attention from both of these issues. USA fears that conflict ridden Syria can act as base for terrorists groups like Al- Qaeda. On top of that, recent use of Chemical weapons have attracted its attention as it is something USA is weary of. However, intervention is still a bad idea even for USA at this point. Middle East is going through a lot of trouble, and involvement of USA could mess the situation more. The half -hearted attack, as the United States Government claims, will only outrage allies of Syria namely Russia and Iran, which in turn can disturb the delicacy of international politics leading to serious political crisis. If half-hearted attack as USA government proposes turns out to help the opposition Jihadists, whose involvement in the protest have lately been verified, to take control over Syria, it will only escalate the burden of USA and international society. Learning from experience at Iraq and Afghanistan that foreign intervention in internal conflict of country does not work out well, USA does not want to get involved in Syria the way it did in Afghanistan and Iraq. If USA is to attack Syria even at small scale, danger persists that attack to punish the violation of law against Chemical Weapons may drag USA into the war, in which it does not want to be involved. As far as the question on violation of international law about chemical weapons is concerned, it would be ironical to attack by violating another law, law concerning UN Security council, as Watt argues.
 
In a vicious circle where every action looks inappropriate to give direction, the best way to solve the issue would be to wait and watch as the questions on attack is adjourned by the agreement between USA and Russia. As far as punishing Assad regime for chemical attacks is concerned, it should be a step taken not only by the USA, but by a collaboration between powerful states. Although Chemical weapons are less destructive than several other weapons, as argued by Walt, it is best for the world to have it under control because of its tendency to affect more civilians than the intended target.

Radwan Ziadeh’s Article

WALT’s Article http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/08/26/is-an-attack-on-syria-justified/type-of-weapons-assad-uses-shouldnt-affect-us-policy

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